PANDEMIC FLU VACCINE IS THE NEW BIOTECH GOLD RUSH

The Financial Times is reporting today that the major makers of flu vaccine have jointly pledged to triple production capability through the next three years.

The World Economic Forum has been inundated with pandemic flu end-of-the-world scenario-ists, firmly dominating many of the most important meetings which were scheduled to
discuss world poverty.

One manufacturer of vaccines has already discussed the opportunities of creating as many as 28 possible pandemic flu vaccines, which could be worth hundreds of billions of dollars over the next few years.

But does that mean they are expecting almost thirty different types of pandemic flu?

.

PANDEMIC PREPARATIONS : SICK WILL BE LEFT TO FEND FOR THEMSELVES

PRIORITIES WILL BE WATER, POWER, FOOD SUPPLY

"....maintaining infrastructure -- water, power and the provision of food -- could take a higher priority than providing care to the sick.

"It is maybe even more important to concentrate on the essentials of life for those who are living than it is to focus on the treatment of those who are sick."

As reported by Reuters, the above comments came from David Nabaro, a senior UN 'influenza co-ordinator', after the analysing the results from a "top-level catastrophe simulation" related to pandemic influenza.

'FLUCASTERS' TO KEEP WORLD INFORMED DURING PANDEMIC

"The United Nations is considering using 'flu-casters' modeled on television weather forecasters, to publicize vital information if a global flu pandemic strikes. "

Broadcasts to beam to the world from the UN/World Health Organisation's $5 million Flu Bunker in Geneva.

Should a pandemic occur, the Flu Bunker will become the UN/WHO Global Command Centre.

KILLER INFLUENZA VACCINE BREAKTHROUGH : HUMAN COLD VIRUS MAY HOLD KEY

Researchers in the US have genetically engineered a human cold virus in their search for a vaccine to avian influenza, and they are claiming it is one hundred percent effective in mice and chickens.

So your chickens and mice will survive, even if you don't.

"While production of a conventional flu vaccine requires months of work and large numbers of fertilized chicken eggs, the researchers reported Thursday that they prepared their vaccine in only 36 days, growing it in a laboratory dish.

"The ability to produce a new vaccine so quickly could give public health officials a powerful new tool to combat the H5N1 bird flu virus if it should mutate and begin infecting humans widely.

"The team is working with the Food and Drug Administration to begin human tests of the vaccine, said Dr. Andrea Gambotto of the University of Pittsburgh Medical Center, who led the team. He said those trials could begin within weeks."

CHINA LIFTS QUARANTINE ON FARMS

"China's Ministry of Agriculture has announced quarantine has been lifted in all areas affected by the avian flu on the Chinese mainland as an avian flu-affected area in southwest China was declared safe by local government earlier Friday.

"The district was put under quarantine following an H5N1 avian influenza outbreak among quails on Jan. 6. The local live fowl market was closed, all sick and suspected birds culled and local chicken farms strictly sterilized. "

WOULD THE US GO TO WAR TO CONTAIN A PANDEMIC BIRD FLU OUTBREAK?

"If anywhere in the world there appears to be person-to-person transmission, we will do everything we can do to quench the initial outbreaks. We will engage on the front lines."

US Centre For Disease Control's Director Julie M. Gerberding, speaking at the 2006 National Influenza Vaccine Summit, through late January, 2006.


GET READY FOR PANDEMIC, IT'S COMING, SAYS UN

David Nabarro, the UN co-ordinator on avian and human influenza :

"....please act as though it's going to start tomorrow. Don't keep putting off the difficult issues. It may not be months, it could mean we are going to get human-to-human transmission tomorrow."

VIRGIN'S BRANSON ADVISES "KEEP YOUR HEAD DOWN FOR A YEAR" IF PANDEMIC FLU BREAKS OUT

Branson told the World Economic Forum special meeting on the Bird Flu Threat that a pandemic could ground up to 70% of aircraft, but would have a benefit in forcing world oil prices way back down again.

"You're just going to have to be strong enough to keep your head down for a year," Branson said.

Richard Branson, of course, has his own airline, a yatch and a spaceship.

US CITIES AND TOWNS TOLD NOT TO EXPECT FED GOV TO HELP DURING PANDEMIC FLU OUTBREAK

"Any community that fails to prepare - with the expectation that the federal government can or will offer a lifeline - will be tragically wrong," said Alex Azar, deputy secretary for the Department of Health and Human Services, at a meeting of American mayors last week on the threat of an influenza pandemic sweeping across the United States.

Azar said mayors should be prepping for a worst-case scenario, with the 1918 avian influenza outbreak that killed beyond 60 million people worldwide being the worst case.

Using the 1918 outbreak as a model would mean an estimated 30% of the population falling ill, 15% of all Americans needing significant medical attention, with 2% of all Americans dying from pandemic influenza.

Or roughly 6 to 7 million Americans.

Full article here.

THE NEWS IN BRIEF

Bird Flu Human Death Toll : 82 Dead, 151 Confirmed Infections

Dutch Farmers May Reject Bird Flu Vaccinations

The Destruction Of Chinese Wetlands Helps Spread Of Virus

World Health Organisation Denies It Is Hyping Threat Of Bird Flu Pandemic.

Tukey Outbreak Reveals Speed Of Bird Flu Containment :

"The outbreak in Turkey had also shown how fast national authorities, backed by international experts, can move in a health crisis....Within a day, samples had been taken from suspect cases and shipped to WHO laboratories in Britain. Results were available within 24 hours; 100,000 treatment courses of oseltamavir (Tamiflu) were available were available one day after the first cases were confirmed."

Tukey bird flu virus tests indicate mutation underway

"....the virus is trying different things to see if it can more easily infect humans. So far, we haven't seen that the virus has the ability to do this."

Two infants in Turkey have beaten their bird flu infection and are now recovering. More than a million birds have been destroyed during the outbreak, there were 21 confirmed infections and four deaths. Quick hospitalisation after symptoms first develop has aided in the recovery of the infected.

THE GLOBAL BIRD FLU PANDEMIC AS A FOREST FIRE ANALOGY

US and Asian medical experts hooked up for a teleconference last week to discuss world preparedness. The US pushed their point that preparing locally will prove useless should the rest of the world not be as prepared. They intend to make sure every human and animal outbreak of avian influenza is reported, though there were few clear directives as to how a global watch on outbreaks would be put into practice.

The U.S. assistant secretary for health, Dr. John Agwunobi, tried to explain his government's "flexible response" to the pandemic with the Forest Fire Analogy.

"....the world is a large forest and a small spark occurs in a particular part of this forest.

"If we have an opportunity to aggressively throw all our resources at that spark and put out that fire, we will do so. However, if we sense that the spark has gone beyond its initial circle and is now spreading rapidly around the planet our strategy might have to change."

BIRD FLU IS SPREADING RAPIDLY ACROSS TURKEY

FIRST MUTATIONS OF THE VIRUS IN HUMANS

RUSSIA, EU, CHINA PREPARE FOR PANDEMIC

WORLD POULTRY TRADE PREPARES FOR LOSSES


The Bird Flu/Avian Influenza virus in action.

WHO tells Asia to prepare for a bird flu epidemic.

Examining the bird flu outbreak propaganda : where's the proof?

The battle to stop bird flu will have to be fought for a long time to come in Turkey.

Bird Flu in Turkey now an epidemic, says WHO, and shows signs of mutation.

Viruses mutate to survive in changed environments, to grow stronger, to take control more easily. The mutations occurred at the level where the avian virus flings hooks into the human cell to hang on. Once hooked, they're hard to shake. Mutation, and the words "more capable" are not good news. It means the virus is growing, learning, teaching itself how to invade and kill more effectively, and to keep fighting. Today it's winning.

Turkey has confirmed the death of a third child from the virus.

Three children from the same family have now died after handling dead chickens. They didn't know what avian flu was or why their farm birds were dying. There are upwards of 20 people now confirmed infected in Turkey. They are isolated and under surveillance.

The World Bank is handing out $500 million to countries under threat from bird flu.

But these are not gifts. All loans to the World Bank will have to be repayed. This means poorer countries could have most of their poultry stocks destroyed in an outbreak, and then owe millions in loan repayments from a shattered economy.

More antivirals promised at meeting of Aisan health officials.

Roche, the makers of Tamiflu, has already committed 30 million capsules of Tamiflu to the World Health Organisation for "rapid response" for the Asian stockpile. They've promised more are on the way.

The H5N1 virus is spreading rapidly through bird populations in Turkey. 11 cities are infected, with another twelve cities under close watch.

The mass gatherings of health officials from all over the world continue to multiply, there's another one in Beijing this week.

BIRD FLU TIMELINE


A timeline of how the H5N1 virus, or Bird Flu, or Avian Influenza, spread across the planet.

May 1997: A three-year-old boy becomes the first of six people to die in Hong Kong of a mysterious virus, later identified as H5N1.

Feb 2003: A nine-year old boy returns to Hong Kong after contracting bird flu during a trip to Fujian province in southern China. The United Nations World Health Organization (WHO) says that one of his sisters died of the disease.

Dec 2003: South Korea confirms an outbreak of the virus and slaughters more than 2.5 million chickens and ducks in a bid to halt the outbreak. A five-year-old boy recovers from the disease in Hong Kong after apparently contracting it in China.

Jan 2004: Vietnam says the number of human deaths on its territory has risen to 13. H5N1 outbreaks are reported in Laos, Cambodia, Indonesia, Japan, China, Pakistan and Thailand.

Feb 2004: The first cases are confirmed in the United States and Canada while in Thailand the virus is detected in a panther, a tiger and domestic cats. - Aug 2004: Three new deaths are confirmed in Vietnam and an outbreak reported in Malaysia.

Jan 2005: First fatal human case reported in Cambodia. Three more will follow.

March 2005: North Korea announces it is affected by the disease.

July 2005: First fatalities announced in Indonesia.

Aug 2005: Confirmation that the disease has spread to Kazakhstan, Mongolia and the vast Russian region of Siberia.

Oct 7: Ducks in the Danube delta in Romania are found to be infected with H5N1.

Oct 13: An infection which has killed thousands of turkeys in north-western Turkey is confirmed as H5N1.

Oct 19: Russia, China and Romania confirm new outbreaks of H5N1 bird flu.

Oct 20: Thailand reports its first human death from bird flu in a year.

Oct 21: Britain says a parrot that died in quarantine had bird flu, while Croatia confirms the virus was found in 12 swans found dead in a lake.

Oct 25: China confirms another outbreak.

Oct 31: Canada says the H5 virus, a different strain, has been found in wild migratory birds.

Nov 8: Vietnam reports its 42nd bird flu death.

Nov 11: Kuwait discovers the H5N1 strain in a flamingo. Thailand reports a new human case.

Nov 15: Britain says 53 birds from Taiwan have died from H5N1 in a quarantine center.

Nov 16: China confirms two human cases of bird flu, one fatal.

Dec 9: A five-year-old boy becomes Thailand's 14th bird flu death.

Dec 17: A British lab confirms the presence of H5N1 in the Crimea region of Ukraine.

Dec 22: Romania reports its 21st outbreak amongst poultry. Indonesia's human toll rises to 11.

Dec 29: China announces its seventh human case of bird flu and its third fatality.

Jan 4, 2006: A 14-year-old Turkish boy is confirmed as the first person in the country -- and the first known anywhere outside Asia -- to have died from human bird flu. His sister dies the following day.

Jan 10: Turkish officials say a total of 13 people are ill with bird flu caused by the H5N1 virus strain, plus the two who have died.

Jan 11: WHO officials say two more people died of bird flu in China in December, and an infected boy remains critically ill.The Turkish agriculture ministry says there are outbreaks of flu in birds in 15 out of the country's 81 provinces, but an AFP count puts the number at 23 provinces.United Nations animal experts say the H5N1 strain of bird flu could become endemic in Turkey, and pose a serious risk to neighbouring countries.

'Standard' Flu Virus Spreads Rapidly Through US

6.8% OF ALL US DEATHS DUE TO INFLUENZA VIRUS

ABC America sources the US Centers for Disease Control (CDC) for a report on how the annual US flu season is picking up dramatic speed, with "widespread" flu activity reported in California, Utah, New Mexico, Arizona, Nevada, Wyoming and Texas.

"According to the CDC, the flu is a contagious respiratory illness caused by many different influenza viruses," reported ABC America.

Fox News has a report giving a few details about the dismal state of emergency wards in hospitals in some of the US's biggest cities.

Emergency department facilities have declined by 14% through the past twelve years, leaving the US vulnerable to the aftermath of major terrorist attacks further weather events like Hurricane Katrin, or, perhaps worst of all, the full blown outbreak of the bird flu virus.

Few virologists doubt a massive flu pandemic is coming, its .a matter of not if, but when, as so many World Health Organisation officials keep reminding us.

Today, emergency departments in at least six major US cities are quickly being filled with flu-sick people. Some have already been forced to close their doors to new patients, unable to cope with those already inside the facilities.

BIRD FLU THREAT TO 2 MILLION MUSLIMS IN MECCA

SAUDI AUTHORITIES AND W.H.O. PREPARE FOR ULTIMATE INFLUENZA NIGHTMARE



With more than 2 million Muslims gathered in Mecca for this year's Hajj pilgrimage, authorities are fearing a human to human bird flu outbreak, one that might infect thousands of the gathered who could then return home to countries across the globe carrying the virus.

This would be a worst case scenario, and there is yet to be an official confirmation of human to human transmission, but it still remains a possibility. Hundreds of Indonesians are now in Mecca for the pilgrimage and will be screened before returning home now that a new outbreak of human infection and deaths have been reported in Indonesia in the past few days.

All flights into and out of Indonesia are supposed to be monitored already for signs of infected fliers, but as the virus is believed to have an incubation period of up to a week (before it shows its presence in visible and diagnosable symptoms) little short of blood testing every flier in and out of Indonesia would totally contain the virus in the event of a human to human outbreak.

Saudi Arabia has brought millions of dollars worth of Tamiflu, which may slow the bird flu infection in humans. But this will only be given out when signs of infection show themselves, and there would only be enough for a small percentage of those perhaps exposed.

Imported poultry is now banned in Saudi Arabia, along with Iran, most of
Russia, Turkey and a growing number of EU states.

Heavy screening for infected persons has already taken place at Saudi airports as well as at all border crossings.

Because of the sheer concentration of people into a relatively small area, in the past flu viruses have spread like fire amongst the pilgrims.

What the World Health Authority fears most of all now is that a person carrying the bird flu virus (picked up from infected poultry) is in Mecca and will come close to another person carrying one of the multitude of human flu viruses.

Their nightmare scenario is that these two viruses will then join together and mutate into a human form of the bird flu virus, which may then be easily passed from human to human, touching off the worldwide pandemic that has caused such panic and multibillion dollar spending sprees on drugs like Tamiflu and specialised health facilities and equipment by governments across the world.

WHO is believed to have already stationed emergency teams in or near Saudi Arabia so the outbreak can be contained should their worst forecasting become terrifyingly real. Saudi Arabia have deployed more than 60,000 police and troops around Mecca.

In the end there may be a far greater risk to human lives from regional and sectarian tensions amongst the gathered Muslims. While Saudi authorities have taken WHO's advice to heart and treated the threat of a bird flu outbreak very seriously, they see a far more looming and likely death toll in stampedes, bombings or shootings when Shiite and Sunnis, in particular, find themselves in close quarters.

Saudi authorities have been accused of barring thousands of Iraqis from entering the kingdom. Pilgrims from Indonesia and Turkey have also been refused entry on security grounds.

While bird flu seemed to have slowly slipped out of the headlines during the past three or four months, the virus has been gradually working its way across the globe.

Last week in Turkey saw the first human bird flu deaths outside of Asia, when three children of the same family became infected and died within days of each other.

For now the WHO claims all infections in Turkey, where more than 70 people are now under observation, are likely to have come from contact with infected birds.

But as with the Indonesian infections last year, not everyone infected in Turkey has been exposed to diseased poultry.

WHO sees such cases as anomalies and has stated those persons must have had very, very close contact with an infected person, such as comforting or kissing someone who has already contracted the virus from infected birds.

That may sound like human to human infections, but WHO tends to not view them that way. Their definition of human to human transmission would be where a bird flu infected person enters a crowd of people and this vicinity contact allows the virus to spread quickly though the crowd, infecting many, and killing most of those infected.

But in Mecca it hasn't happened yet. For now the Hajj goes on.