CLAIM : ONE BIG WAVE OF PANDEMIC BIRD FLU IN THE UK THEN IT WOULD BE OVER

NEW REPORT PRIMES EARLY DETECTION AS BEST WEAPON TO FIGHT HUGE DEATH TOLL AND MASSIVE FINANCIAL CHAOS

From The Guardian (UK) : "Within two months of the first pandemic flu case anywhere in the world, it would arrive in the UK. It would peak here two months later with countless thousands likely to have died, but the worst would be over within four months.

"That is the most likely scenario for a flu pandemic, according to results of the first computer simulation of how the virus would spread across the country.

"...the pandemic could be slowed if schools were closed and people living in the same household as those infected by flu also took anti-viral drugs.

"The government's current plans include ordering 14.6m courses of anti-virals by September, enough for a quarter of the UK population. There are plans to buy 120m doses of vaccine for whichever strain of flu ends up becoming a pandemic infection.

"...the computer model...built up a virtual population of UK inhabitants on a computer, and, using real data, simulated their interactions at work, school and in homes.

"The computer simulation showed that treating flu-stricken people would reduce transmission but only if anti-viral drugs were given quickly, within a day of the symptoms first appearing. Vaccines would also need to be available within two months of the start of the pandemic to have any major impact on the spread of the disease.

"Current government plans suggest the ill should be treated within 48 hours of developing symptoms. But this target might be shifted to offer treatment within 24 hours in light of the new models.

"....new technologies to spot outbreaks of disease early would dramatically cut death rates, avert the need for mass animal cullings and save billions of pounds in battling infectious diseases."