BIRD FLU IS NOW "PROBABLY" SPREADING FROM HUMAN TO HUMAN IN INDONESIA

"TIME IS RUNNING OUT..."

INDONESIA SAYS IT IS "STRUGGLING" TO WARN OF IMMINENT DANGER

After months of denials that there was a possibility that the avian influenza virus was spreading from human to human (the precursor to a possible pandemic), officials inside Indonesia, and assorted experts from around the world, are now saying the spread is "likely", "probable" "may have happened" and "suspected".

Next, we will learn that "communication breakdowns" delayed the long demanded truth about whether or not the H5N1 virus has mutated into a form that is likely to become epidemic, and then pandemic, in humans.

As usual, the real news barely rates a whisper in the Western media, particularly when some SuperBadGuy terrorist has been blown up.

Xinhua reports today :

Human-to-human transmission of bird flu probably occurred in Indonesia's seven cluster cases, a minister said. But he ruled out a pandemic of H5N1 across the archipelago.

This news broke after high level meetings with fellow officials from the World Health Organisation, UNICEF, Indonesia's Health and Agricultural ministries, the Food and Agricultural Organisation and the National Commission on Bird Flu.

"Limited human-to-human transmission may have occurred in small clusters in the country. It has not only happened in several regions in Indonesia but also in Azerbaijan and other places in the world," Coordinating Minister for the People's Welfare Aburizal Bakrie said Friday after a meeting with agencies involved in curbing the spread of the disease.

A member of the National Commission on Bird Flu, Emil Agustiono,would not confirm Aburizal's statement. "We need to do more research to prove it," he said.

"Above all, the public should not be panic but be wary of the threat from infected fowl, There has yet to be a pandemic. The virus strain is still the same and it's still coming from infected poultry."

The Indonesian government has now announced "plans" to intensify its fight to stop the spread of the virus amongst poultry, and that means more, and bigger, culls of infected birds and all those birds that may have been exposed to infection.

Interestingly, the Indonesian govermnet is going to dust off two old laws - the 1984 Epidemic Law and the 1967 Infectious Disease Control Law - to force people to comply with culling programs. Most recently, the Indonesian government has faced widespread anger and denial from poultry and bird owners, who argue vehemently the virus doesn't actually exist, and are not happy with the program of compensation.

But the new laws to be -reactivated will mean "sanctions" for those who "who obstruct the government's endeavors to control a plague or communicable disease outbreak."

Translation.

A crackdown. Bigtime.

The gloves are coming off, which clearly shows the Indonesian government believes it is facing a larger, and far more dangerous, health crisis than it did a month ago.

INDONESIA ADMITS IT'S LOSING BATTLE TO SPREAD THE WORD AMONGST IT'S 17,000 ISLANDS ABOUT THE DANGERS OF BIRD FLU

Bad news from Bloomberg about how many human infections might be going unreported.

Indonesia is a huge country, with roughly 15% of the world's poultry population. Millions of homes have poultry birds in backyards pens, or running loose. The virus can spread from the birds themselves, or their droppings. And it seems fairly certain now that at least some people infected by birds can then pass the virus onto others via close contact :

"We're trying to get on top of the virus, but time is running out,. It seems people perceive bird flu happens on television, and they aren't aware that they too are at risk if they don't follow the required steps."

Human cases are taking seven days on average to be reported to world health officials, and national governments in the Asia- Pacific region are finding out five days after symptoms appear, according to the draft report. Delays in finding and isolating cases risk exposing people to the virus and increase opportunities for it to mutate into a pandemic form.

The report, written by organizations donating funds to combat avian and human influenza threats, is being discussed at the Influenza Partners' Senior Officials Meeting. The two-day meeting, which began yesterday in Vienna, is being hosted by the European Union, the U.S. and China.

Many Indonesians infected with avian flu are discovered too late in their illness to respond well to medical treatment, Supari said.

"It's often too late because sometimes doctors don't detect the symptoms...''

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