UPDATES FROM AROUND THE WORLD

FORBES EXPLAINS HOW TO PROFIT BIGTIME FROM A BIRD FLU PANDEMIC

AND WHY THE WHO WILL WANT TO DELAY REVEALING A PANDEMIC HAS BEGUN

Good God, no wonder the World Health Organisation was reluctant to shift the Global Pandemic Alert Level from Level 3 to Level 4, during the cluster outbreak in Indonesia in late-May, early-June.

As a columnist for Forbes.com explains : "The moment the WHO shifts the alert level to Phase 4, expect a literal overnight collapse of the Asian markets similar to the currency crisis of 1997. That crisis started in July 1997 in Thailand, but it caused a global financial domino effect. That is what we are looking at with a Phase 4 warning."

Ahhh, thanks for the heads up.

Obviously there will be a massive demand for anti-virals, or a possible vaccine, against the Bird Flu virus should a human pandemic break out. This would, of course, mean that the stock price of biotech companies that manufacture anti-virals would skyrocket.

But apparently there are plenty of other ways to turn a big fat profit off a human avian influenza pandmeic, during which more than 100 million could die within months.

Forbes.com : "The vast majority of stocks would decline, which is why we have suggested a December put option on the Standard & Poor's 500 index as a hedge...with respect to hedges, it is best to get in early."

December? Do Forbes.com columnists know something the rest of us don't?

Forbes explains that while biotech and pharmauetical companies' stocks may soar after the WHO announces a Level 4 warning, "Most other stocks are likely to plummet due to media shock."

After the initial selling wave has passed, however, bargain hunters will arrive, and we expect there will be a group of companies that quickly rebound once investors realize that their businesses will thrive in a national bio-emergency, assuming the companies can maintain manpower services. That is a big assumption, but it is worth sketching out a shopping list.

Health care is a goer, apparently. And companies that supply such essentials as oxygen cylinders will also do well - the infected will have great trouble breathing, and even those who aren't infected, and can afford round the clock oxygen, may decide to suck it instead of risking the air most others will have to share.

But there's plenty more areas in which to turn a buck while the world is swallowed up by a deadly pandemic. There's video-conferencing, "emergency communications" and online shopping networks, such as EBay. That's providing there's enough drivers to get the goods ordered online to the homes of the infected, or terrified.

Nice to see that Forbes.com gives us the straight info about how and why the beginnings of a human pandemic might be covered up :

"What are the chances of a pandemic? How lethal might the mutated strain be? How easily passed? How effective would the current anti-virals be? We honestly don't know, but we assume that government and WHO health officials will always downplay the seriousness of the situation to avoid sparking pandemonium on top of pandemic."

Yes, the WHO wouldn't want to terrify people by telling them the truth. Best to not let the punters know that they might be getting infected with a deadly virus simply by standing too close to an infected somebody at a bus stop who has just arrived home from Indonesia.

Of course, if people were told the truth (if a pandemic broke out) they might calmly and simply head to the shops to stock up, head home and get stuck into that pile of books they've been waiting to read for years while they wait out the six to eight passage of a pandemic wave.

We therefore believe it is prudent for individuals to acquire anti-viral medication at this time. Given supply shortages and the long lead times for manufacturing, it will probably not be available during a pandemic in the 2006 to 2007 time frame.

It's refreshing to know that even while a few million, or a hundred million, people are drowning on their own mucus and burning up with fever that stock market speculators in the know will keep themselves busy turning some neat, fast profits off the whole of human misery.

Nice One.


BIRD FLU IMPORTED INTO NEW ZEALAND, HELD IN 'FORT KNOX' STYLE BIOLAB

Biosecurity chiefs have imported the deadly strain of bird flu and are keeping it under "Fort Knox-style" security.

Biosecurity Minister Jim Anderton told MPs yesterday that samples of the H5N1 virus were imported to allow scientists to identify quickly whether suspected cases were real.

There was little chance the virus could escape or be stolen. "You'd have to take a nuclear bomb to the place ... I've been out to inspect it, it's sort of Fort Knox squared and then cubed."

....about a teaspoon of the virus was held in liquid form in vials, under strict controls.

The samples were being used to test whether H5N1 was present in New Zealand ducks, geese and other waterfowl.

...it was expected the samples already in New Zealand would be grown in small quantities to allow continuing tests.

NO FACE MASKS? THEN PERHAPS A T-SHIRT MAY SUFFICE

While there is a widely acknowledged shortage of anti-virals to cope with the earliest stages of bird flu infection in humans, let alone the existence of a vaccine, information now emerging points to a widespread shortage of face masks that could help ward off infection, or stop infected persons from spreading the virus further.

But some people have already come up with a solution to the last problem. Use a t-shirt. People with breathing difficulties, such as asthmatics might not be able to breathe through eight or so layers of t-shirt fabric, however.

In the event of a bird flu pandemic -- when medical supplies are expected to be in short supply worldwide -- a mask made out of an ordinary cotton T-shirt could keep the deadly virus out of people's lungs, said a local public health physician and two University of Pittsburgh researchers.

"It's a prototype. We've tested it on three people, but we thought it warrants getting the information out there," said David Hostler, a professor in Pitt's School of Emergency Medicine.

The mask is made by boiling a cotton T-shirt in water for about 10 minutes then letting it air-dry to sterilize the fabric and shrink it as much as possible. Using a pair of scissors, a ruler and a marker, Dato fashioned an eight-layer air filter that goes over a person's nose and mouth, as well as three sets of ribbons to secure the mask to a person's head.


CHINA : OFFICIALS CLAIM BIRD FLU VIRUS IS SPREADING THROUGH MIGRATORY BIRDS

China's chief veterinary officer on Thursday warned that bird flu is on the rise among migratory birds in China this year.

According to the Ministry of Agriculture, 1,168 migratory birds had been found dead in Qinghai and Tibet by June 1. The disease was striking more species of wild birds than last year.

Experts said these areas were all on bird migration routes between east Africa and west Asia.

Countries and regions on this route had reported outbreaks of avian influenza since July 2005, including Mongolia, Kazakhstan, Turkey, China, India and others, said experts.

VIETNAM PRAISED FOR SUCCESSES IN CONTAINING DEADLY VIRUS

David Nabarro, Senior United Nations Coordinator for Avian and Human Influenza, on June 14 praised Viet Nam and Thailand as model countries for controlling the H5N1 strain of the bird flu virus.

"I hear everyday of new outbreaks of bird flu, but I also hear about heroic struggles by countries to combat it,'' Nabarro said.

EXPERT : BIRD FLU VIRUS IN CHINA MAY HAVE UNDERGONE MUTATION

The latest human bird flu infection on the Chinese mainland is worrying as it shows the H5N1 virus may have mutated and become as infectious in warm months as in cooler ones, Hong Kong's health chief said on Friday.

The virus thrives in lower temperatures and is usually most infectious in the cooler months between October and March.

But confirmation on Thursday that a 31-year-old truck driver in the southern city of Shenzhen has been infected has caused uneasiness.

"Is this because the virus has changed, so that it is highly infectious all year round? Or, if it is happening in summer, winter would be even worse?" said the Secretary for Health, Welfare and Food, York Chow.

He said the virus might have become "more virulent and spread wider than we've expected," though its mutation was not confirmed.

"If that is the case, the risk for humans to be infected in the future is higher," he added.

In neighbouring Shenzhen, authorities have stepped up virus prevention and surveillance efforts.

The local government said it will now report the situation relating to human bird flu cases every day.

The Shenzhen Centre for Disease Control and Prevention has been asked to enhance its surveillance of any pneumonia-like cases.

So far the city has not reported any poultry infections.

But vendors said they are required to disinfect shelves twice a day and stop on-the-spot slaughtering. Some supermarkets have stopped selling live chickens.

"Business is really bad. I didn't even sell one chicken today," said a vendor at a Xiangmei Road market.

NEW BIRD FLU CASES AND OUTBREAKS REPORTED IN CANADA,
HUNGARY, and INDONESIA


SCREENING OF PASSENGERS FOR BIRD FLU SYMPTOMS TO BEGIN AT CALIFORNIA AIRPORT

MID-EAST POULTRY SALES ARE RECOVERING FROM BIRD FLU OUTBREAKS